This objective test question contains a question type which will only appear in a computer-based exam, but this question provides valuable practice for all students whichever version of the exam they are taking. Shuffles is attempting to decide which size of fork-lift truck to buy to use in its warehouses. There are three grades of truck, the
A、series,
B、series and the
C、series. The uncertainty faced is the expected growth in the on-line market it serves, which could grow at 15%, 30% or even 40% in the next period. Shuffles has correctly produced the following decision table and has calculated the average daily contribution gained from each combination of truck and growth assumption. Based upon the scenario information, if the probabilities of the given growth rates are 15%: 0.4, 30%: 0.25 and 40%: 0.35, which truck would the risk-neutral buyer purchase?
A、series,
B、series and the
C、series. The uncertainty faced is the expected growth in the on-line market it serves, which could grow at 15%, 30% or even 40% in the next period. Shuffles has correctly produced the following decision table and has calculated the average daily contribution gained from each combination of truck and growth assumption. Based upon the scenario information, if the probabilities of the given growth rates are 15%: 0.4, 30%: 0.25 and 40%: 0.35, which truck would the risk-neutral buyer purchase?
【参考答案及解析】
‘C’ Expected value calculations: A Series: ($2,400 × 0.4) + ($1,400 × 0.25) + ($4,900 × 0.35) = $3,025 B Series: ($1,800 × 0.4) + ($1,900 × 0.25) + ($2,800 × 0.35) = $2,175 C Series: ($3,600 × 0.4) + ($4,500 × 0.25) + ($3,900 × 0.35) = $3,930
‘C’ Expected value calculations: A Series: ($2,400 × 0.4) + ($1,400 × 0.25) + ($4,900 × 0.35) = $3,025 B Series: ($1,800 × 0.4) + ($1,900 × 0.25) + ($2,800 × 0.35) = $2,175 C Series: ($3,600 × 0.4) + ($4,500 × 0.25) + ($3,900 × 0.35) = $3,930