A company is considering the development and marketing of a new product. Development costs will be $2m. There is a 75% probability that the development effort will be successful, and a 25% probability that it will be unsuccessful. If development is successful and the product is marketed, it is estimated that: Expected profit Probability Product very successful $6.0m 0.4 Product moderately successful $1.8m 0.4 Product unsuccessful ($5.0m) 0.2 What is the expected value of the project?
A、($0.41m)
B、$2.12m
C、$1.59m
D、$0.41m
A、($0.41m)
B、$2.12m
C、$1.59m
D、$0.41m
【参考答案及解析】
(W1) EV = ($6m × 0.4) + ($1.8m × 0.4) – ($5m × 0.2) = $2.12m (W2) EV = ($2.12m × 0.75) + ($Nil × 0.25) = $1.59m Net benefit: $1.59m – $2m = ($0.41m)
(W1) EV = ($6m × 0.4) + ($1.8m × 0.4) – ($5m × 0.2) = $2.12m (W2) EV = ($2.12m × 0.75) + ($Nil × 0.25) = $1.59m Net benefit: $1.59m – $2m = ($0.41m)