Consider the following diagram. If a decision-maker wished to maximise the value of the outcome, which options should be selected?

A、Option 2 and option 7

B、Option 3

C、Option 1 and option 4

D、Option 2, option 6 and option 8

A、Option 2 and option 7

B、Option 3

C、Option 1 and option 4

D、Option 2, option 6 and option 8

【参考答案及解析】

The correct answer is A. The various outcomes must be evaluated using expected values. EV at point B: (0.75 × 10,000) + (0.25 × 8,000) = 9,500 EV at point D: (0.6 × 20,000) + (0.4 × (4,000)) = 10,400 EV at point C: Choice between 10,400 and 11,000 EV at point A: Choice between B (9,500), C (10,400 or 11,000) and choice 3 (9,000). If we are trying to maximise the figure, option 2 and then option 7 are chosen to give 11,000.

The correct answer is A. The various outcomes must be evaluated using expected values. EV at point B: (0.75 × 10,000) + (0.25 × 8,000) = 9,500 EV at point D: (0.6 × 20,000) + (0.4 × (4,000)) = 10,400 EV at point C: Choice between 10,400 and 11,000 EV at point A: Choice between B (9,500), C (10,400 or 11,000) and choice 3 (9,000). If we are trying to maximise the figure, option 2 and then option 7 are chosen to give 11,000.